EighteenAndFive

In-depth and Intelligent Views on Liverpool FC & Football in General

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Henderson, Adam & Downing – How Right are They for the Reds?


Alright, so I haven’t written anything on 18and5 for a while because, frankly, there hasn’t been anything compelling enough to write about. The signing by Liverpool of Jordan Henderson caused a fair bit of debate, mainly over the price tag I suppose, but all in all the completion of a transfer so early in the Summer was enough to assuage anybody’s doubts that it was the right thing to do, and things looked rosy. Then we had a quiet spell before the Charlie Adam deal was finally wrapped up, and again the odd voice was heard over whether he was the right signing for the club. Again though, things quietened down fairly quickly and it seemed most people agreed that the price (presumed around £8 million) was pretty good, considering Blackpool wanted £10 million or more just six months ago.

But now the Reds are on the verge of adding a third British player in Stewart Downing, for a fee rumoured to be between £18 – 20 million, and there seems to be a bit of a divide as to whether this approach to players is the right way to go.

edit – Alexander Doni has been signed by Liverpool since I started writing this, but as a second choice goalkeeper he doesn’t really affect any part of this argument!

There are several angles I want to answer this question from; or at least give my answer to it.

Firstly – the perceived ‘unspectacularness’ of the signings. Secondly – why these players have been targeted. And thirdly – how can they fit in and be the right signings for Liverpool?

Let’s go back to the beginning. Late into the transfer window in January, the Reds sell two forwards (Babel and Torres) and sign two forwards (Carroll and Suarez). Much rejoicing was to follow when Torres looked like Sean Dundee playing for Chelsea, and Suarez proved every bit as good as any newcomer we have seen over the past few seasons – probably since Torres himself came in and smacked 24 league goals in his debut season, in fact.

From then on, people seemed to think that all the new signings for Liverpool were going to be equally spectacular, equally mind-blowing in their impact, equally expensive as well probably. It was (rightly) pointed out that NESV/FSG had roughly broken even in January, with the two outgoing sales compensating for the two signings, and the management went right ahead and told us there would be spending in the summer, as long as the right deals were there.

So many names were thrown around – Phil Jones, Blackburn’s new kid on the block ‘destined’ for great things (so were Jamie Cassidy and Anthony Le Tallec I will add); Juan Mata, Valencia’s Spanish creative forward; Ashley Young of Aston Villa, Ezequiel Lavezzi, a hundred different others – that it seemed the home-based and household names of Downing and Adam held little interest for some supporters any more, especially as they were ‘old news’ as the club was linked with a move for both in the January window.

Now those two (well Downing hasn’t officially signed at the time of writing but it seems a mere formality given Aston Villa have accepted LFC’s bid) and Henderson have joined the club it seems that there is a slight feeling of anti-climax about Liverpool’s transfer dealings, despite the fact (or perhaps, for some people, because of it?) that Liverpool have spent somewhere between £42 million and £50 million this summer, recouping only around £1.5 million in return for the sale of Paul Konchesky to Leicester City.

Let’s stop and take stock there for a second. Fifty million quid spent, next to nothing brought back in.

Think back a year; the Reds brought in two Bosman signings (Cole and Jovanovic), a back-up ‘keeper (Jones), re-signed Aurelio for free, brought in Shelvey and Wilson on pre-arranged deals which though could rise significantly only initially laid out around £3 million in total for both, splashed out ten million on Raul Meireles and wasted about ten million and two youth players on Poulsen and Konchesky.

A total outlay of about £25 million… recouped in large part by the single sale of Javier Mascherano to Barcelona.

Oh, and Liverpool also sold Damien Plessis, Diego Cavalieri, Yossi Benayoun, Miki San Jose, Albert Riera, Krisztian Nemeth and Nikolay Mihaylov, all of whom brought in transfer fees. Aquilani, Degen, Insua and El Zhar were also loaned out to remove them (at least partly) from the wage bill.

This was nothing new – several transfer windows in a row Liverpool brought in more money than they spent. Is it any wonder we spiralled down the table? Now look back at our current spend: £50 million – so far. Is that not reason enough to be happy? Is it not better to have spent this money within six weeks on Premier League players rather than servicing two years’ worth of debt interest with it? Regardless of every single Liverpool fans’ opinion on these three players, should we not simply be pleased that we are once again in a position to do business rather than be forced to sell to cover the mismanagement of the club?

Henderson, Adam, Downing.

Not spectacular names. But names nonetheless, names who have or will agree to come to Liverpool to try their hardest, to play for Kenny Dalglish, to win trophies. That’s good enough for me for starters.

The second and third parts of my argument – why these three players and also how will they fit in to the squad? – link together somewhat, but let’s see first why the trio were targeted.

The Reds have a large number of midfielders now; Gerrard, Lucas, Meireles, Spearing, Maxi, Poulsen, Shelvey, Cole and Jovanovic (if you include him as a wide midfielder, though not his actual position he did play there mostly for the Reds) from last season and now the return of Aquilani plus Downing, Henderson and Adam. Lots of players for three or four positions, but we’ll get there in a moment.

I won’t go into the statistics too much at this point; they have been covered in many articles already by many blogs or writers and I’m sure most people reading this will probably have heard them already, especially the one about the three new boys combined having created enough chances between them last season at their old clubs to account for 56% of the total chances Liverpool as a whole created during 2010-11. If you didn’t know that one already, now you do!

But what precisely is it that they bring to the club? Henderson signed first, so let’s consider him. He can play out on the flank on the right as well as in his more favoured central role; he can play very much a box-to-box type of role or be much more the focal point of attack through the middle; he can pass well, has a very good cross on him and has pace and stamina to spare. Above all, it is perhaps the potential of the player that Liverpool have signed; at 21 years of age he is the youngest player to be signed for the first team for some time and he has yet the capability to get better at everything.

He already though offers an attacking presence, endless running and no shortage of creativity and flair in the centre. Saying that, I envisage that he will find more playing time, at the beginning of this season at least, out on the right flank – I’ll explain why a bit more in part three, though of course his crossing ability and pace stand out as immediate advantages.

Charlie Adam, well we can already see what he will bring to the club. The first thing is his set piece delivery, which Liverpool have been less-than-excellent at for some time. With Carroll, Kyrgiakos, Agger and Kuyt (and Gerrard, if he is not taking them now) awaiting set piece deliveries we should be a much more potent side than we have been from corners and free kicks. Suddenly we have gone from perhaps two alternately good and poor takers in Gerrard and Aurelio to both those two, plus all three new signings took various types of set pieces at their former clubs. Jonjo Shelvey, should he play more of a part in the first team this season, will also want to get a look in.

Other than that, Adam brings a certain balance to the midfield by being left footed. It might not sound like a big deal, but it can have an effect on game situations – how many times have we seen the ball move from the left side across the centre, then across again, and again, and again until it reaches the right flank, merely because Maxi-to-Lucas-to-Meireles-to-Gerrard-to-Kuyt involves all predominantly right footed players who prefer to shift the ball across themselves before making the pass, giving the opposition defence an extra half a second to narrow the angle, close a player down or mark a free runner. Mixing a left footed player in there gives the option of an inside-of-the-foot first time pass while the ball is travelling left to right, as well as a cross from deep without needing to check back inside first. I don’t know how long it will be before Adam puts a cross on the head of Carroll from a similar sort of distance and area of the pitch to that of Meireles for Carroll’s second goal against Man City last season, but I bet it’s not long – a chance which otherwise might not have been taken while one of the other midfielders switched the ball to their right foot.

Adam can also feature when needed further wide as a left midfielder, and presumably will have no trouble playing as either a deep lying player ahead of the back line (though I don’t expect him to need to play that role often) or in the ‘Steven Gerrard’ role behind one forward. However, I am fairly sure he will be the ‘second’ midfielder, the on-the-ball midfielder who gets our attacks going and probes the opposition midfield and defence with alternating long and short passes. That is the other thing Adam brings; a range of passing which the likes of Suarez, Gerrard and Downing eventually will thrive on with their excellent movement.

And so on to Stewart Downing. Why Downing is needed is fairly obvious; we have no left footed, left sided midfielder and haven’t had since Albert Riera effectively threw himself overboard mid 2009-10 season with his Rafa Benitez comments. Before that, a succession of failed Sebastian Leto’s, Mark Gonzalez’s and Harry Kewell’s have failed to consistently deliver from that side.

Left footed crossing from the left seems to be fading out somewhat in the Premiership as teams more and more often try the ole’ “switch the flanks” routine, having right footed players cut in from the left and vice versa. Great, and effective at times, but variation is the key to a successful attack and even as someone who does not, generally speaking, like wingers I can accept and indeed encourage the fact we need someone in the squad who is going to hug the flank at times, stretch the play, beat a defender and get a cross over.

I’ve heard the arguments about Mata over Downing and yes, he is undoubtedly a better player but he is also not the same type of player. Nor is Santi Cazorla, for whoever it was saying we should have signed him instead of Downing. He’s also not left footed.

I also read a complaint of sorts that Downing “just pushes the ball past the defender” to beat him and cross, presumably being a moan that he doesn’t do several step-overs first or some kind of Brazilian skill move which ends in -o. Erm, so what? Surely the whole point of having a wide player in the team – and the reason I don’t like them much – is receiving end product? If Downing has a way of providing that then that is what we need, no matter how it is delivered.

He can, of course, play right the way across the midfield having spent a spell in the centre of the park after James Milner’s departure, and frequently featured on the right flank for both club and country last term and before.

Downing is a good crosser, has a fair shot on him from around the edge of the area and does carry a set piece threat, though perhaps not on par with Adam. His right foot is not exceptionally strong but he isn’t afraid to use it, which is more than can be said for a lot of players on the Liverpool squad list. We know he will work hard, put in a shift and get through a lot of selfless running and will, in my opinion, be an asset to the club.

Could we have got a faster winger? Yes. Could we have got a cheaper winger? Definitely. Could we have got one who was faster, cheaper and provided the same number of chances that Downing will create next season? We’ll never know, but I would argue probably not. As for the people who think the transfers have been geared towards throwing the ball up towards Andy Carroll’s disturbingly hairy head, either have a word with yourself – this is a Kenny Dalglish side we’re talking about – or else just rest easily in the knowledge you are happily wrong.

Not that we’ll never do that; if you have a Rory Delap throw in, you use it; and if you have a hairy cannon-ball header of the ball, you use it.

And one other important offering from all three players. For far too long, Liverpool have been reliant on a few match-winners who, when missing, the team struggles to replace. I’m not just talking about goalscoring, but all areas of winning matches. Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard, obviously. Dirk Kuyt, Daniel Agger and previously Xabi Alonso, Javier Mascherano, Luis Garcia and Yossi Benayoun. Aside from Mascherano’s final (full) season and Alonso’s second season, all of those ‘match winners’ who have left the club suffered significant injury problems and missed at times fair chunks of almost each season. Gerrard last season only played slightly more than half the league games, while the normally reliable Kuyt also missed half a dozen games through injury. In fact, aside from Martin Skrtel, no outfield player managed more than 32 starts for Liverpool in last season’s Premier League. Go back even further – Kewell, Smicer, Berger, Owen, Fowler – all match winners who battled injury time and time again for the Reds until they were replaced.

I am not suggesting that the three new lads will immediately (or ever, if compared to Gerrard and Fowler) have a match-winning ability on the scale of these other names, but they do have their talents which can help the Reds win games. And last season Adam played 35 of Blackpool’s 38 league games. The season before, 43 from 46. Jordan Henderson played 37 of 38 last year and in his first full season played 33. Downing last season played all 38 games. He suffered an injury in 2009-10 but in 08-09 played 37 of 38. The year before, the full 38 again. The year before, 34. These three new signings have a track record of being fit and available for their teams, and that amongst all their other traits is also something to be admired; something which will benefit Liverpool a thousand times more than Kewell being injured even if you liked how he beat a man better than Downing; more than Berger being injured even if he had a harder left footed shot than Adam and more than Jamie Redknapp being injured for two and a half years even if he was club captain and Jordan Henderson never will be.

And so now to how these players can fit in to the squad, and why are they right for Liverpool.

This last part is a bit more tricky and involves a certain few assumptions on my part, but hopefully fairly safe ones.

My first assumption is that Dalglish is focussing on playing some variation of a 4:3:3 system at most times this season. It’s the only formation which makes sense to me really; whether that be a 4:2:3:1 or a 4:5:1 or a true 4:3:3. They are all very small variations of the same essential system. One striker, 2 supporting players in differing positions, 3 central players. We also saw a 3:4:3 (3:6:1, whatever you want to call it) a few times last season which is also adaptable from the 4:3:3 I propose that we will play.

Based on this, let us discount for now from the squad list all goalkeepers, defenders and the holding midfielders, which is a very specialised position and for which we have Lucas Leiva, Jay Spearing and if he stays Christian Poulsen. Conor Coady as a prospect looks like he may get game time in this position in a cup competition this season perhaps.

That leaves us with five positions to fill (two central midfield and the front three) from currently the remaining 10 midfielders – Gerrard, Meireles, Maxi, Shelvey, Cole, Jovanovic, Aquilani, Downing, Henderson and Adam – plus Kuyt, Suarez, Carroll, Pacheco and Ngog – fifteen players. Three per position is obviously too many in a season where we will play between 40 and 51 matches, compared to our usual 50 or more in a European campaign with at least moderate success in the domestic cups.

Milan Jovanovic is almost certain to leave shortly, while it seems likely that at least one of Maxi Rodriguez and Joe Cole will depart. It seemed sure after last season that Maxi would go after claiming he wanted to return to Argentina but his new squad number (11) seems to indicate that he will stay. The latest rumours for Cole have Aston Villa chasing him, though I am still tempted to keep hold of him for now. Ngog can leave if a team offers the right money for him, while Pacheco is likely to have another loan spell.

With Jovanovic, Pacheco and Ngog taken out of the equation we have 12 players for five positions. This is probably about the number we need to have – the argument will be whether the 12 players are the right 12 we need.

For me, Gerrard and Adam offer good compatibility with each other while Meireles and Aquilani, two more of who it has been argued that one could/should leave, offer great depth as alternatives for or alongside either player. That leaves Shelvey as a fifth, who has already shown his versatility playing both at right midfield and left back – though clearly has a future as a central player.

A front three of Suarez-Carroll-Kuyt is intriguing but simplistic; Downing and Henderson offer excellent potential on either side of that triumvirate for varying the method of attack. Quite clearly we want Suarez to start as many games as possible and he can play right the way across that 3 as well as being a ‘second’ striker if we alter the plan. Kuyt is similarly versatile, if entirely different in style.

Downing as mentioned already can play both sides of that system, offering regular delivery and width in an otherwise possibly predictable line-up. Please note, I say predictable, not stoppable. We know Luis will love to pick the ball up in the left channel and drive in towards the goal; which is not to say that defenders will be able to stop him. Downing however will offer an alternative option and allows Suarez to play more centrally at times, or else he will offer a direct goal threat cutting in off the right side onto his left foot, a la Adam Johnson for Manchester City.

Henderson on the right side of a three is an option which really interests me. I know Kuyt is the main man, and will likely continue to be so, but he can also play centrally and Henderson will certainly get plenty of chances, even if it is off the bench to begin with. But with his drive and pace and willingness to run at defenders I truly think he can be a massive part of the Liverpool attack this season. His crossing is very intelligent; not just curling a high ball in or flashing a driven effort across the box but actively searching out runners, high and low, something which both our January deadline-day buys will appreciate.

The former Sunderland man is also exceedingly capable of scoring a good few goals for the Reds from that position in my opinion; he can get in the box to provide great support very quickly and has a decent shot on him. I am particularly looking forward to seeing him in this kind of role for the Reds, even if long-term he might be being thought about within the club as a central player.

That leaves us with Maxi and Cole. Two different kinds of players, both who play from out wide on either side, neither of which are a ‘winger’. Maxi relies on movement and quick passing to be effective; Cole on technique and trying the unexpected. It didn’t work out for Cole last season but, and I fully appreciate I stand to be shot down somewhat here, I still would give him another chance, at least until January. I understand the wages could be prohibitive and if there is a buyer who will offer him first team action he might want to go, but I have always admired how Cole came back from criticism in the past (see as a young captain at West Ham, and later his work rate issues under Mourinho) and would like to see him do it at Anfield and deliver what he is really capable of.

And, I might add, this system with wide runners, good off-the-ball movement from any of them, cutting inside or staying wide, is another big reason for the signing of Charlie Adam, and why I think we will play a 4:3:3. His long range passes have been well highlighted, sometimes for good arguments (great passer) and sometimes for bad (comparatively poor pass completion rate), but with runners such as Downing, Suarez, Maxi or Henderson I think we will see the best of Adam from this second central position, right in the middle of the park with one (e.g. Lucas or Spearing) behind him tidying up and one (e.g. Gerrard or Meireles) taking up more aggressive positions in the final third. He can pick out the runners and the players at Liverpool are generally speaking more technically and tactically savvy.

Maxi I can take or leave; seven goals in three games was great but for eighteen months he has been alternatively good and anonymous and I would not look on with an enormous amount of regret – though with fondness, don’t get me wrong – if he was to eventually depart the club this summer.

Something else I’d like to bring up at this point; I have mentioned the duos of Meireles-Aquilani and Downing-Henderson ‘second’ when talking about players for each position. This doesn’t mean I see any of them playing a back up role. Fans need to understand now that there is not a ‘first eleven’ any more; there is not a first teamer and a back up for each position. There are back ups, no doubt about it, Poulsen will be proof of one if he doesn’t move on this summer and the recently arrived Doni will be one for Reina, but in key areas of the outfield team we need more first teamers than there are positions – and this is something which has held Liverpool back for far too long.

In central midfield, for example, teams don’t need two (4:4:2) or three (4:3:3) first teamers and two or three back ups, a top side playing three in the middle need four or arguably even five first pick central midfielders, as well as another one or two floating about spare.

There’s no list of “Centre mids: Lucas and Gerrard, then Meireles and Adam; right side, Kuyt then Henderson; up front, Carroll and Suarez, then Ngog.” No. Henderson will play right, and centre, and possibly left. Downing the same. Gerrard possibly even the same. Dirk will play right and up front, and in behind. Luis will play all over the show.

Dalglish is building a side capable of playing from one set formation, many systems – that’s the way it must be done. And therefore, players need to be able to play several positions if necessary; the more they can, the more chance of getting game time they have. Downing and Henderson in particular offer Kenny that.

Of course, if Kenny is going for a 4:4:2 then this ‘list’ goes out the window somewhat and we can expect another attacker to be on the way, along with at least one of the named central midfielders departing, but somehow I just don’t see it at this stage.

The eleven players who take the pitch on any given match day don’t alter the fact that it is a squad game now and we need so many more than 12, 13 or 14 players who can play well and often, which is what we’ve had before. I have to admit, though I still want a left back to come in, if we sign no other player after that I will be more than satisfied with the summer’s work by the club.

Were Henderson, Adam and Downing my first choice signings at the beginning of summer for the Reds? No. Do I think therefore that they are bad signings, or wrong signings now? Only time will tell, but I am confident they won’t be. They have been signed with a plan in mind, and if Kenny is the designer then we can’t go too far wrong. Players can get better playing with better team mates and all three players have stepped up a level in moving to Anfield. It is also a fact, long proven over time, that Kenny Dalglish improves players and can get better performances out of them over a season.

Maybe not spectacular signings, maybe not earth-shattering signings, maybe even one or two overpriced signings – but if they are the right signings for Liverpool Football Club, that is perfectly fine with me.

Liverpool Summer Transfer Wishlist: Part 1 – Player Sales


After the recent turbulent times the club has been through, much hope rests now that the club can return to its former state – namely, that of progression and togetherness and most importantly winning trophies. For that to happen, this pre-season could see Liverpool delve heavily into the transfer markets in both directions, in an attempt to restructure the squad and add further top quality players to compliment the recent arrivals of Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll.

And, in turn, it stands to reason that a number of familiar faces could depart Anfield for pastures new, to leave behind (for some at least) memories of great games and faithful supporters.

So which players leave, and which ones stay? How does a team plan for a new generation when so many star names are at the club?When some areas of the pitch have good depth and others fall woefully short?

The truth is, as supporters, we can only guess who is on the club’s short-list and especially at this time since we don’t even yet know who will be the permanent manager come summer. In the most part we probably all think and want it to be Kenny Dalglish, who along with Sammy Lee and Steve Clarke have done so much good work in such a short time, but it could yet be another new man.

But for the meantime, the wondering and waiting must go on and so I will turn my attention to the matter in the only way I know how; by putting forward my candidates for transfers in and out of the club, and my reasons why.

At this point I would like to make a few things clear before naming names; I have no insight to club matters or player transfer valuations, I have no idea if players have been targeted outside the ‘media knowledge’ thus far and I certainly have no idea what formations or system the yet-to-be-decided manager will turn to in the new season.

And for that last reason, my ‘incoming transfers’ will be based on Dalglish remaining boss, and the 3:4:2:1 system (3 centre backs, 2 wing-backs, 2 central midfielders and 2 players in behind and either side of 1 centre forward) being the dominant formation. Largely because it is my favoured one, and partly because we have employed it to great effect recently and I hope it continues. Of course, no formation is so foolproof, and no great manager is so foolhardy, that one single system would be used in every game of a season, so the pool of players in the squad must be capable of switching to a 4:2:3:1 or a 4:4:2, for example.

But the incoming transfers are for the next article. This one is concerned with those to leave the club.

The players I would have to leave fall into three categories: players who I don’t believe are of the quality to play for the club, players who have contributed to the first team but who I believe need to be moved on for the betterment of the team, and players who might have to be moved on depending on a variety of factors.

Perhaps the casual observer might say the easiest group is the first one, but the truth is, fans will always be divided over what players are of the right ‘quality’ for Liverpool FC.

For me it is relatively straight forward though. Without meaning any disrespect to players who have worn the famous Red of Liverpool, something I will never do (other than replica shirts of course!), there are players who clearly belong to this list.

Loanees Nabil El Zhar and Philipp Degen head the names. El Zhar never made the impact at the club that his first few substitute appearances hinted at, and as a free transfer arrival he was more of a speculative signing than one Rafa Benitez really believed would be a key piece of the jigsaw. Degen had what can be described as a torrid time in England; his first season was blighted by injury and even in the second season when he made something more of an impact on the first team, his physical attributes were largely negated by the fact he couldn’t tackle, regularly failed to mark his opponent and rarely managed to last the full ninety minutes.

Both players are likely to leave on free transfers in the summer, or as close to it as to make the fees ‘nominal’.

A third player on loan is also likely to leave permanently in summer – Paul Konchesky. The unsuitability of the English left back to the Anfield club are well-documented and as I do not intend to use this piece as a place to make any player a scapegoat, I will merely say that he should never have been signed and we all know it. His Premiership experience and English nationality means there will likely be no shortage of takers for the ex-Fulham man, and though we will not claim anything like the £4-5 million we paid for him (plus youngsters Dalla Valle and Kacaniklic) we could expect to recoup perhaps £2-3 million.

Christian Poulsen could fit into either of the first two categories, given that he has had a long and reasonably distinguished career, but the bottom line is he hasn’t been good for the Reds, so he goes into the ‘not good enough’ section. Again, we are not likely to recoup the £4 million we spent on him, but a return of around £2-3 million could be expected.

Finally, a host of youngsters will as is usual depart the club. For me those who I would not expect to remain beyond July/August are Stephen Darby, Gerardo Bruna, Martin Hansen, Nikola Saric, Stephen Irwin, Deale Chamberlain and David Amoo. Darby with six appearances has made the most impact at first team level, while Bruna and Amoo may fetch six-figure sums each. I would be surprised if the total fees garnered from young players leaving the club surpassed the £1 million mark, but one of those two could fetch that in add-ons and future payments.

Onto the second group. These players have contributed to the club in various ways, but should in my opinion be allowed to move on as we seek to improve the squad.

Maxi Rodriguez would be my first name on this list. Maxi is a clever player and has produced some good performances, but all too often goes missing for large parts of games. Statistics put Maxi high on the list of productive players – his pass completion ratio, for example, is usually very high – but this doesn’t give a full measure of his performance. Maxi is one of those who is relatively frequently caught in possession and therefore loses the ball without actually making a pass; this wouldn’t be picked up in a statistic but certainly impacts on Liverpool’s game on the field of play. While the Argentine was signed on a free transfer, his large wages mean we would be unlikely to rake in any larger kind of fee for him; I suspect a fee of around £1 million might be payable to release him from his contract but a buying club would be unlikely to fork out more initially as they would probably have to match his Anfield wages.

Fabio Aurelio is next. Though he has been at the club for approaching five years, he has never enjoyed a season-long run in the first team on account of his terrible luck with injuries. He was re-signed in the summer after initially being released, so I suspect he may be granted a free transfer if any club is interested in taking him. If not, again the Reds may bring in a small amount, but don’t expect it to be large.

Back up goalkeeper Brad Jones is my third player in this category. Doubts about him surfaced when he joined, but he has proven an able deputy to Pepe Reina in his few appearances. However, he is never going to replace Reina as number 1 and given that we have a talented young stopper in Peter Gulacsi on the books, who Dalglish has entrusted with the ‘keeper’s bench spot even since the return of Jones from International duty, I would not be surprised to see the Aussie leave. Gulacsi has gained enough experience through loan moves to cope with being our second choice goalkeeper and selling Jones may bring in another £2 million or so, similar to the fee we paid for him last summer.

Another summer arrival, Milan Jovanovic, would also be allowed to leave. ‘Jova’ started well at the club but has been unable to force his way regularly into the team and given that he would have a significantly larger resale value than most players so far (perhaps around the £4 million region) I would be inclined to let him go. There would be no shortage of takers, having been on the shortlist of many teams before leaving Standard Liege, and Milan does not really fit into a system that I would like to see the Reds employ regularly.

A player who seems to split opinion next; David Ngog. Some say he’s nowhere near good enough, others say he doesn’t get enough credit. I am somewhere in the middle; he’s certainly not a bad player but I feel he will always struggle to become a regular at the club. That, combined with his probably resale value, makes him an asset the club can afford to cash in on this summer. A £6 million fee was mooted last summer with WBA interested, so if he is rated at around the same value in July, or possibly slightly more, I would take the offer. Carroll and Suarez each have a certain way of playing and while I agree we need to have as many options as possible in attack, I think Ngog is the least compatible of our forwards with the other players. A player signed for only £1.5 million; Ngog would represent a good profit and would allow funds to be directed towards more suitable players.

Now finally onto two defenders, Dani Ayala and Martin Skrtel. Ayala is a competent defender and has performed well on loan this season in the Championship, but I believe both Kelly and Wilson are far superior at this time and will only get better. Add in Daniel Agger, Carragher and Soto Kyrgiakos and Ayala is already quite far down the pecking order. He would likely command a fee in excess of £2 million, perhaps double that in time, and I would take this as a good offer. Skrtel has been something of a mainstay of the team for a number of seasons now, but in that time has not progressed from a good defender to a great one, or even a very reliable good one.

His faults in each game are repetitive and predictable, and he does not give confidence in dealing with the ball in the way that Carragher and Agger do. His mis-timed challenges on forwards when the ball is clearly un-winnable often lead to dangerous free kicks, his aerial prowess is poor and he is neither a commander nor an organiser of the defence. He is however a great tackler, a good marker (though perhaps less so from set-pieces) and is rarely injured, plus he has a very good reputation, especially around Europe. Skrtel could comfortably command a fee in excess of £5 million and perhaps as much as £7 m. As Liverpool rebuild their team, the defence must be spot on and Skrtel is the first real “first teamer” who needs replacing.

That pretty much concludes the list of who I want to see offloaded this summer. But there is, as I said, one other smaller group of players who I would not exactly want to sell, but would accept the sale of in the interest of improving the side further.

First and easiest is on-loan midfielder Alberto Aquilani. I like Aquilani – he’s a great passer of the ball, has wonderful vision and, as he proved in the last months of last season, knows where the goal is. We’ve been crying out for a player of his type at times this season and I would certainly welcome him back into the fold next season. However, Juventus do have a purchase option written into his loan contract, which I am led to believe is around the £13.5 million mark. Should they match it, there would not be a lot Liverpool could do now to stop him leaving. However the Italian side do not appear to have the funds to spend on Alberto; rumours in the media have circulated of them trying to lower the agreed price further. For my part, if they can’t pay that fee, I wouldn’t sell him. If Aquilani is keen on a permanent move back to Italy, and another buyer is interested, then I would certainly hope that the Reds hold out for offers in excess of £12-14 million; after all, this was a signing which would have cost Liverpool in excess of £20 million all told.

Emiliano Insua, also on loan this season, is another in a similar boat. The left-back was all set to depart permanently last summer after Liverpool accepted an offer from Fiorentina for him (around £4 million) but they were unable to match Insua’s wages at Liverpool, and so instead he left on a temporary deal for Galatasary. The Argentine has not been a regular in Turkey though, starting just eight times in the league so far, and is unlikely to stay there long term. Thus, if a bid around the same amount came in this summer it might prove worthwhile offloading him, but if he was to stay at the club, again, I would not be disappointed. Indeed, with his attacking instincts and crossing ability Insua might indeed be a great option for Liverpool as a left wing-back.

Next up is a defender out of contract in the summer – big Greek Soto Kyrgiakos. His two year deal expires in the summer and while it would be understandable if he was allowed to move on – he is our fourth choice centre back and his age will be 32 when his deal expires – but he is a usually solid and dependable player and his experience has proven vital for the club already, and no doubt would do again. His contract does include the option to extend for a further year and I would like to think the club will exercise this option; quite aside from his playing abilities, it certainly does the younger defenders at the club such as Coady, Wisdom and Mavinga no harm at all to learn off a rugged and fearless player like Soto as much as a cultured and classy one like Agger.

Finally, two key first team players make this section. Players who for years have divided fan loyalties, only to prove time and time again that they are players for the big occasion, players who can make a difference and players who at the end of the day can win the team points.

So why do I include them in a list to possibly sell? Simply because, part of rebuilding a club involves removing some well-worn and hard-working parts of the first team to make way for fresher faces, new ideas and different problems for opposition to work out.

And so, step forward Lucas Leiva and Dirk Kuyt. Lucas has been Liverpool’s most consistent player over the past season and a half, and I say with no hesitation that I would be pleased if he was in a Red shirt next season. The only two reasons that I would contemplate selling him are because 1) his resale value would be fairly high, perhaps in the region of £5-8 million and 2) because I believe the players I have in mind as replacements would serve the club even better than Lucas can.

For Dirk, we all know his strengths – not just his hard work, but his selflessness, his ability to score a goal at important times, his sense of tactical responsibility and his record-breaking number of sales as the face of the official club calender. Alright, maybe not that last one.

Come the end of the season, Kuyt would have one year left on his contract and at 31 years of age in the summer his resale value would probably be at only around £3 million, despite his qualities. For that reason, I imagine Dirk is the least likely to leave of the players on this list. At the time of writing, he is thought to be in discussions over a new contract at the club. For my part, as mentioned, I won’t be disappointed to see him stay at the club but I do believe we need alternatives in attack to continually playing the same faces. Kuyt needs to be pushed as much as any other player and I would like to see him play more in a central attacking role than out on the right side. In my preferred formation, Kuyt would be one of our options to play as one of the two behind the centre forward, or as the centre forward himself.

And so we end the list. In pure number terms it seems like a lot – 18 who I want or expect to see leave the club, plus another 5 who could go either way. But in reality, only Maxi, Ngog, Poulsen and Skrtel are first team members out of the 18 – the rest are on loan, reserves or players who contribute so little to the first team as to make no difference – back up ‘keeper Jones, perpetually injured Aurelio and out-of-favour Jovanovic have made just eight league starts in all and total less than 900 minutes of Premiership game time between them.

Those eighteen players would bring in an estimated £25 – £29 million which should be comfortably enough to replace three or four first team players with. The key with “selling to buy” is to use the money brought in to sign (hopefully) ‘better’ players without denting the squad depth – selling/releasing eighteen players doesn’t mean eighteen more have to come in because as shown above, only a handful contribute to the ‘real’ depth of the squad. Even if Jovanovic (for example) needed to be replaced as well as the four ‘first teamers’ mentioned, an average of £5-6 million per player is not a bad amount to have to spend, especially with Bosman transfer bargains (see this article for more detail) a possibility and the hope that the new scouting and recruitment effort coordinated by Damien Comolli pays dividends.

In addition, if Aquilani, Insua and Lucas all left the club, a substantial £20 – £25 million could be recouped by the club which would effectively only need to go towards replacing Lucas in the squad.

Perhaps the numbers still seem too large; perhaps it seems like overkill. After all, I myself have argued that the quality of the squad is still there and that this similar group of players finished second in the league only twenty months ago. And I have no doubt that almost everyone on the list will have a supporter prepared to argue in their favour, and probably rightly so.

But if this is to be a brave new era for Liverpool Football Club, it seems right to me that we begin it as we mean to go on – by filtering out that which can be improved upon, and not being afraid to sell on genuinely good players when it is for the overall betterment of the team.

In my opinion, the sale of the names above would be the way to do just that.

Next up soon, the replacements….