EighteenAndFive

In-depth and Intelligent Views on Liverpool FC & Football in General

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Lucrative Liverpool: Anfield Re-development or Stanley Park Naming Rights?


Liverpool Football Club Managing Director, Ian Ayre, recently confirmed that the senior club hierarchy have held productive and informative talks with ‘several’ global brands with a view to possibly selling the naming rights for the new stadium in Stanley Park, should the decision be taken to move away from current stadium Anfield.

Ayre was at pains to clarify that, as yet, no firm choice has been made on whether to stick or twist with regards to an expanded stadium, although he also admitted that talks relating to the naming rights – significantly, how much prospective sponsors would be willing to shell out – would go some way to determining the outcome of the decision.

So which would be the best way to go for Liverpool?

The stadium debate has dragged on for years now; the infamous “spade in the ground at sixty days” quote has gone way past being a bad joke, but even before the Texan cowboys rode into town back in 2007 a new stadium was something which had been on the agenda for the club for quite some time.

Fans were split then and some remain so; the heritage, history and tradition of Anfield or the custom-designed, sponsor-funded shiny new stadium across the way in Stanley Park?

First of all, lets get the raw numbers out the way. Why do Liverpool need a new stadium? Simply put, Liverpool are falling further behind their competitors such as Arsenal and Manchester United with every home game that passes.

In the most simple and roughest of terms, during a domestic season Anfield, which holds around 45.000 spectators at a time, hosts 19 league matches and perhaps 2 or 3 cup games, depending of course on the draw and how far Liverpool progress. Given that this season just finished Liverpool played 1 away FA Cup match and 1 home League Cup match only (which saw an attendance of just 22.500), we will discount cup matches for these basic figures.

Nineteen home matches, multiplied by an average ticket price of £45 (they ranged from £39 to £48 for 2010/11), multiplied again by an average attendance of 43.000 gives a total ticket income of £36.765.000 per Premier League season, approximately £1.9 m per home match.

Compare this to Arsenal (19 x average ticket price of £60 x average attendance of 60.000) who rake in £68.400.000 per season (£3.6m per home game) and Manchester United (19 x £45 x 75.000) who collect £64.125.000 per season (£3.4 million per home game) and it is clear to see that the Reds have a severe handicap when it comes to spending power – and this is on ticket sales alone. Next season Liverpool will not have any Europa League income to be grateful for either (4 home games x £35 tickets x 38.000 average attendance  = another £5.3 million) while both those clubs will contend Champions League football again next season. Newcastle United and Manchester City also had higher average attendances for the 2010/11 season than Liverpool.

Of course, the numbers are extremely rough – kids’ tickets, disabled seats, away supporters and season ticket price differences are not accounted for in the sums, but even taking that into account, 15.000 or 30.000 more people visiting the club shop, buying half time drinks and pies, doing first scorer scratch cards and making bets and buying match-day programmes all makes a hell of a lot of difference to the overall income of the club.

Should Anfield be increased to 60.000 capacity then over the course of a Premier League season the Reds would have their kitty boosted by up to an extra £14.5 million per season – nothing to sniffed at, especially in the climate of Uefa Financial Fair Play Regulations and ever-increasing player values.

Liverpool have been at pains to improve the so-called Anfield Experience recently under the stewardship of Ian Ayre – the Boot Room cafe and improved product range in the club shop are just two examples of that.

Few Reds would turn down the chance to stay at Anfield if it was a viable option, and if the planning permission can be sought and the physical improvements can be done with little fuss then it could be a great option for the club.

But this is a decision for the next hundred years of Liverpool’s existence; an extra £15 million a year is not the only thing to be kept in mind.

Football stadia worldwide are now used for so many other features; music concerts, community occasions and International matches are just a few of them. Is Anfield capable of hosting those events? Are these other sources of income something that LFC want to look at and rely on? Are the surrounding areas beside Anfield Road and Walton Breck Road – neither exactly Sightseeing Avenue – able to cope with the added demand of between ten and twenty thousand extra pairs of shoes every other week, or indeed more frequently at times? There is no parking in or beside the stadium itself; visitors arrive at the ground on foot having departed buses, trains or cars elsewhere.

The original plans for Anfield, after the building of Stanley Park Stadium, as it was, would have been to regenerate it into Anfield Plaza, with offices, restaurants and the like introduced to renovate the area.

All great, but all more expensive of course.

The Stanley Park Stadium was due to cost around £300 million to complete; doubtless the price will have by now increased somewhat as a result of inflation if nothing else, despite the recent economic downturn.

Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium earned the club £100 million for a fifteen year deal on naming rights – however this included an eight year shirt sponsorship. Given that Liverpool have a four-year deal for shirt sponsorship with Standard Chartered worth £20 million per year, it seems that either Ayre and his commercial team have pulled a magnificent rabbit out of a hat by getting so much from the Asia-based bank, or else that Arsenal were short-changed for their double sponsorship income allowance.

In either case, I would certainly expect a payment of at least £5 million per year for naming rights for any new Liverpool FC stadium – and in truth I would hope it to be quite considerably more than that, perhaps around double.

A ten year deal to net the club £100 million for the stadium would go quite some way towards off-setting the construction costs, perhaps as much as a quarter or a third of the total cost – and therefore is absolutely the way to go if a new stadium is the answer.

Of course, nobody wants to be playing at the Tampax Stadium, the Mr. Muscle Bowl or the McDonald’s Arena – but in all honesty, the few corporations who are global enough to want to work with a major football side and profitable enough to pay such high levies for the privilege of having their name adorn the club’s home ground shouldn’t have any real issues with wacky name tags.

Hopefully some time during what is doubtless going to be a hugely busy summer for the Reds – the tour of Asia and the impending signing of Jordan Henderson are two such examples – there will be further news on the final decision to be taken by the Reds, and I can say with no hesitation that I have been impressed enough by Ian Ayre’s leadership and revenue generation so far – even under the despicable duo – that I am confident he and his team will make absolutely the right decision for the long term of the club.

Just don’t promise us anything spade-related.

Hat-trick Hero Maxi but Suarez the Star Again for Liverpool


Liverpool boosted their chances of finishing in a European qualification spot in the Premier League this season and kept up their slight hopes of even nabbing Manchester City to the fourth and final Champions League spot with a 5-2 victory over Fulham at Craven Cottage on Monday evening.

Dirk Kuyt scored his ninth goal in eight league games and Maxi Rodriguez scored his second hat-trick in sixteen days – taking his personal tally to seven in three matches – but it was Luis Suarez, Liverpool’s new number seven, who stole the show again.

The enigmatic and animated Uruguayan was a thorn in the entire defence of Fulham from the very first seconds of the game, during which he set up the opening goal for Maxi after just thirty-two seconds, until the very last moments of the match when another mazy burst down the right channel almost led to a sixth Reds goal when Kuyt’s strike was blocked on the line.

Suarez’s close control made him impossible to mark tightly as he repeatedly spun away from the likes of Chris Baird and Carlos Salcido by each touchline, just as he has done in almost every game since he joined Liverpool from Ajax in January.

When the Fulham defence then stood off, he simply ran at them at full tilt, committing them at every opportunity and revelling in the space afforded to him and his team mates.

Four goals and a further direct involvement in eight goals for his team mates in his eleven matches so far have marked out Luis Suarez as the best Premiership signing of the winter transfer window by some distance and he has helped transform Liverpool’s attacking play with his dynamic movement and non-stop work-rate.

‘El Pistolero’, as he is known, has shown a willingness to buy into the team ethic which has been promoted by stand-in boss Kenny Dalglish from the first day he arrived back at the club and it is that as much as his ability on the ball which has endeared him to the Liverpool faithful in such spectacularly quick fashion.

If Suarez has been the focal point for Liverpool’s flowing attacks recently then a debt of gratitude must also be paid to two lesser-spotted players in the attacking third but no less important for that, for it is the sheer industry and tactical stability of Jay Spearing and Lucas Leiva which has allowed the Reds to flourish in an attacking sense over the past two months.

Working in tandem as though they had been central midfield partners for several seasons instead of several games, Spearing and Lucas have been responsible for breaking up attacks, stifling opposition creativity and launching wave after wave of Liverpool moves, culminating frequently in goal scoring chances for Suarez and his fellow attackers. Against Fulham, Spearing racked up an 82% success rate in his passing and made two interceptions and six successful tackles as he and Lucas completely dominated the midfield battle for a sixth game in a row; a magnificent return for a player making only his 25th career appearance for the Liverpool first team.

How Suarez has benefited from the quick turn-overs those two have won; and in turn what a great return he has given the Reds’ entire attack.

Just fourteen short weeks since Luis Suarez joined the Red re-birth under Kenny Dalglish – one can only imagine the terror he will wreak on the Premiership next season when the likes of Steven Gerrard and Andy Carroll are fully fit and firing and playing alongside him.

‘Fortress Anfield’ Returning as Reds Take Home Advantage


Liverpool brushed aside League Cup winners Birmingham City on Saturday with a thumping five-nil victory at Anfield, as the Reds continued their excellent league form under Kenny Dalglish and closed the gap on fifth-placed Tottenham to just three points, though Spurs do have a game in hand.

Under ‘King’ Kenny, Liverpool have now taken a highly impressive 17 points from a possible 21 at home in the league, with the home form of the team really proving the building blocks for the club’s resurgence since the turn of the year.

Draws against Everton and Wigan remain the only time Dalglish has dropped points at home, while Fulham, Stoke City, Manchester United, Manchester City and now Birmingham have all been sent packing with nothing to show for their efforts, giving the Reds an average of 2.4 points per game. Should Liverpool go on and win their remaining two home matches this season (vs Newcastle and Tottenham) Dalglish would claim an average of 2.6 points per home game in his half-season at the helm.

Compared with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the first half of the season at home (average of 2 points per game) and it is clear that Liverpool have improved quite considerably when playing at Anfield since Dalglish took over in January.

However it is not just the results that have improved – though of course, at the end of the day that is what is clearly most important in terms of league placings.

But the manner in which Liverpool are now disposing of visitors, almost casually batting them aside with a confidence and surety which has been missing for far too long at the famous old stadium of Anfield, is the real major difference which Kenny Dalglish has affected.

Current league leaders Manchester United were overwhelmed, out-fought and out-thought by wave upon wave of Red attacks; Kuyt scoring a hattrick but being just one of a collection of impressive performers. Then Manchester City, so expensively assembled and fighting for Champions League qualification were consummately swiped aside in a first half of verve and fire.

Today Birmingham were beaten with much less fuss than was required for either of the Manchester clubs – unsurprisingly, given their lowly league position – but even more emphatically, Maxi Rodriguez’s hattrick just reward for his part in Liverpool’s tactically astute counter-attacking game in the second half.

Considering that these results are being garnered without such first team automatic picks such as club captain Steven Gerrard, £17 million full-back Glen Johnson, the stylish Daniel Agger, full backs Martin Kelly and Fabio Aurelio and, today, record signing Andy Carroll, only goes to underline what a terrific job Dalglish is doing – and indeed what a lot Liverpool supporters should have to look forward to next season once those players are back and the expected summer arrivals are finalised.

Lucas Leiva and Jay Spearing have absolutely dominated the midfield against recent opposition, including Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, while young full backs John Flanagan and Jack Robinson again proved their substantial promise with an assured display against a side which will be competing in Europe next season. Conor Coady, named on the bench today though not used, will surely also see his time come before long.

Lots remains to be confirmed of course – not least of all Dalglish’s permanent position at the club – but if the home form and swagger of play from Liverpool continues, one thing which is clear is that the club will enjoy many profitable afternoons at Anfield next season – which could go a long way towards helping propel the club back into the upper echelons of the Premier League, as well as towards major European competitions and domestic cup success .

Victory Over City Gives Glimpse of Liverpool’s Youth Culture Future


For the first time in what seems like an age, Liverpool’s conveyor belt of young talent, somewhat rusty and creaky in recent years with disuse, is finally back in motion.

Last night’s victory for the Reds over Manchester City was a point of celebration for many reasons, not least of all the comprehensive manner in which Kenny Dalglish’s patched-together team disposed of Roberto Mancini’s expensively-assembled legion of international stars, nor the occasion of Andy Carroll’s first goals for the club as our new number nine, but also because of the noticeable effect on a good first team performance from a number of locally-produced players.

Vice captain Jamie Carragher, central midfielder Jay Spearing and teenage full-back debutant John Flanagan made up almost a third of Liverpool’s outfield players who came directly through the club’s academy programme, local graduates who have made it to the biggest of all stages, playing in the Premier League at Anfield.

Add to that list left back Jack Robinson, still only 17, who was on the bench for the game as an unused substitute and the missing club captain Steven Gerrard and defender Martin Kelly, both ruled out through injury, and the local-bred influence in first team affairs is once again beginning to rear its head, with four local-born ‘regulars’ and two very promising full backs in the squad.

Not since Gerrard himself broke through to establish himself as a first team regular have Reds fans had someone local to back as they bid to make the grade; at least, not for any significant period of time.

Plenty of players have come and gone of course, some making a dozen or more appearances before succumbing to being released, sold on or deemed not good enough and replaced by imports from the continent and beyond.

Stephen Warnock, with 67 appearances, heads the list of those who ran a hard race but ultimately failed to make it as a regular, while the likes of Neil Mellor (22 games, 6 goals), Stephen Wright (21, 1) and Darren Potter (17) all had their moments in the first team before moving on. The list of players who graduated from the academy to make a handful of appearances is even longer – Lee Peltier (4), Danny Guthrie (7), John Welsh (10), Jon Newby (4), Jon Otsemobor (6), David Raven (4), Richie Partridge (3), Zak Whitbread (7), James Smith (1) and Layton Maxwell (1) are just some of them – while the likes of Paul Harrison, a goalkeeper who was on the club’s books during Rafa Benitez’s reign, made the bench over a dozen times for the first team without actually playing. New Wolves recruit Adam Hammill was another youth player who after several loan moves found himself transferred permanently without having worn the Red of Liverpool in a competitive game. Current full back Stephen Darby, on loan at present to Notts County, has also made 6 appearances and looks set to be another offloaded without quite proving good enough.

Add to that the list of players who were signed as youngsters, either at Academy or reserve team level, and had brief spells in the first team and the picture begins to take shape that perhaps things were not quite being done as they should have been somewhere along the line; whether in the scouting department or that of the coaching, perhaps we will never know. Sebastian Leto (4), Lauri Dalla Valle (1), Antonio Barragan (1), Miki Roque (1), Jack Hobbs (5), Frode Kippe (2), Gabriel Paletta (8, 1), Damien Plessis (8, 1) all came and went, while the likes of Paul Anderson, Haukur Gudnason, Miki San Jose, Alex Kacaniklic, Godwin Antwi and of course Krisztian Nemeth all left without a single minute of first team action to their name.

But now a new clutch of youngsters are at the club; both locally-born and signed from afar.

And perhaps a new era of Liverpool Football Club is upon us; not just in terms of the owners and the manager – which will surely be officially Kenny Dalglish, sooner or later – but also in terms of the effectiveness of producing our own new crop of first team players.

Martin Kelly, so excellent during the middle part of this season until his injury sidelined him, has now made 27 appearances for the club, more than any other academy graduate since Stephen Warnock left for Blackburn Rovers in January 2007.

Jay Spearing, repaying the faith shown in him by Dalglish of late and completely dominating the midfield last night alongside Lucas Leiva against £12 million Gareth Barry and £24 million Yaya Toure, has now played 21 times for the Reds, and recently penned a new contract as he continues his development. At 22 years of age, his push into the first team has come slightly later than some might say is the right age, but Spearing is now showing ample proof that he can be a part of the rebuilding of the Liverpool squad – certainly is some distance ahead of the vastly more experienced Christian Poulsen, who failed to even make the bench last night.

Flanagan and Robinson have each now made their Reds bows, while Thomas Ince also made his debut earlier this season, Andre Wisdom has figured on the bench and on-loan forward Nathan Eccleston has made 9 Reds appearances. Add to that Conor Coady who was recently handed a squad number and has been involved in first team travelling and training, as well as free-scoring striker Adam Morgan in the under 18’s (17 goals in his last 12 games at the time of writing) and it is clear that the young contingent at the club, brought up through the Academy at Kirkby from a variety of ages, are now reaping the benefits of both the faith in them by the main man at the helm, Dalglish – who of course oversaw their development as part of his Academy ambassador role – and also their string of coaches on the way up the Liverpool Youth teams’ ladders, culminating most recently in Rodolfo Borrell with the under 18’s and (latterly) John McMahon and Pep Segura in the Reserves.

At first team level this season, Danny Wilson and Jonjo Shelvey have also had some limited impact – neither bought to the club as ‘youth players’ as such, but at just 18 years old each certainly signings with more than half an eye on the future of the club. Current back up to Pepe Reina, Peter Gulacsi, joined the club as a 17 year old, initially on loan and later permanently.

Other youngsters plying their trade in both the under 18’s and reserves this season who have been brought to the club from other teams include the likes of much-talked about Raheem Sterling, a pacey and tricky wide man; Suso, a creative left-footed attacking midfielder from Spain, Kristjan Emilsson, an Icelandic forward with a knack of scoring goals and Toni Silva, a fleet footed and skilful Portuguese winger – all have impressed at various stages this season and look like they could make the next step, which would be to perform regularly at Reserve team level.

Of course, nothing is to say that any of these players are going to go on and have the kind of impact at the business end of the club as Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher have had. Those two combined have played over 1200 games for Liverpool and have won countless trophies and will go down in history as two of the finest players to grace the Anfield turf.

Indeed, it is even probable that despite the promise shown by many of these players, not all of them will make the grade at Anfield. Young Gerardo Bruna, still a reserve at the club, was highly thought of and a ‘sure-bet’ to make the left side of midfield his own but has even yet to make the bench for the first team and in all honesty does not look close to it now.

But it takes all kinds of players to make a club work and if we get even three or four of the very best of these youngsters into the team on a regular basis over the next couple of years, and the under 18’s coming up behind them can offer a similar output, then the long-term future of the club will certainly be secure – both in terms of quality and in having a good core of local-based talent playing their part in the revival of the club.

Full Back Injury Crisis at Liverpool: Will Kenny Turn to Youth Again?


Liverpool’s weekend defeat to West Brom was a bad day all round for the Reds; the loss of three points obviously being the biggest problem, not to mention losing to the man who wasn’t good enough to manage us, going ahead only to lose the match and generally not playing very well, but perhaps the most important issue in terms of the remaining Premier League games was the fact that Liverpool lost another two defenders to injury during the game – in fact inside the opening half hour.

First, the only senior full back still available, Glen Johnson, succumbed to what looked like a hamstring strain as he chased a long ball over the top of the Liverpool defence, before Daniel Agger, who switched to left back after Soto Kyrgiakos replaced Johnson, also fell foul of injury with suspected ligament damage behind his knee.

That now leaves Liverpool with just four fit senior defenders: Jamie Carragher, Martin Skrtel, Soto Kyrgiakos and Danny Wilson, all of whom are centre backs by trade. Despite having no less than seven senior specialised full-backs on the club’s books, not a single one is currently available for selection – Emiliano Insua, Philipp Degen, Stephen Darby and Paul Konchesky are all out on loan and Martin Kelly, Fabio Aurelio and now Glen Johnson are all injured.

Though Carragher, Agger and more recently Wilson have all filled in at right and left back when needed, and have at times performed admirably, there is something quite clearly missing when these naturally more conservative-minded players have to play in what has become an incredibly important position, even more so for a team like Liverpool which lacks natural width further up the field.

Against West Brom, and not for the first time this season, a lack of thrust and pace was blatantly apparent in the wide areas of the pitch when the Reds had possession and, though the overall play of the team was not good and cannot be completely blamed on the make-shift full backs, this obviously had an impact on Liverpool’s style of play and absence of pressure on the opposition higher up the pitch.

The Reds’ next game is against Manchester City at Anfield on Monday 11th April – and it is highly unlikely that any of the three injured full backs will have recovered by then. What then will Kenny Dalglish do to overcome the problems in the wide areas of defence?

Perhaps the most simple, and safe, solution would be to leave the back four as it finished the West Brom game – Carragher right side, Wilson left, Skrtel and Kyrgiakos in the centre. However, as mentioned, this leaves the Reds with problems in possession when trying to attack and as City’s own full backs – likely Zabaleta and Kolarov – like to get forward, it would make sense to try to exploit the space behind them whenever possible.

What other options, then, are open to Dalglish?

A return to the three man defensive system could be on the cards – the Reds certainly have the depth in central defence – but with no full backs available this would mean Danny Wilson would be deployed at wing-back and while comfortable and composed on the ball the young Scot has not shown the same aptitude nor inclination to get forward as, for example, Martin Kelly has when given the chance. This roving, attacking intent is even more important when playing with wing-backs of course as they must double-up as wide midfielders when the team is in possession.

And on the right side? Dirk Kuyt might be the most logical choice, given his work rate, stamina and sense of tactical responsibility, but he is no defender and truly no genuine winger. Even with Carragher on his shoulder telling him where to be, it would be a big ask of the Dutchman to perform this type of game against an attack as good and varied as Manchester City’s. Dirk also lacks the pace to get forward in support at a moment’s notice and also likes to float inside at times – as a wide midfielder this is fine when he has, for example, Glen Johnson on the outside of him to keep the width but if he is the only wide player in the team he would need to stay outside for most of the game, not something which comes natural to Kuyt.

Perhaps, therefore, the logical choice would be to promote from within. In Jack Robinson and John Flanagan Liverpool have two young full backs who have been in great form at reserve level for the whole season and have been involved with the first team squad on a number of occasions over the past few months.

Robinson, Liverpool’s youngest ever player having appeared at just 16 years of age on the final day of last season, is a fast and adventurous left sided defender; a naturally attack-minded full back who can beat a man with pace and put over a decent cross. He has been on the bench for Liverpool this season, though has yet to add to his cameo debut appearance, and though has struggled with injury of late for the Reds’ second string he did feature for the whole game against Everton in the mini-derby at the end of last month.

Flanagan, a right back who holds the number 38 shirt, has yet to make his debut for the Reds but has travelled with the first team squad as the “19th man” on a number of occasions recently and manager Dalglish himself has said that the young Scouser is pressing for first team action. Uncompromising in the challenge and a good reader of the game, Flanagan is perhaps less of a spectacular attacker than Robinson but no worse a player for it; he has made great strides over the past two seasons and is one of several young players who travelled with the Reds to a recent European away fixture.

With the likes of Jonjo Shelvey, Jay Spearing, Kelly and Wilson having all made impacts on the first team over the past couple of months, perhaps it is not so surprising that two of the younger members of the side might be called upon in such a big game. True, Spearing had played Cup games and had started a Premiership game the year before, but earlier this season Dalglish started him in the Merseyside derby when he played only a few minutes of league football this season before that – evidence indeed that Kenny trusts to the quality of the younger lads in even the very biggest of matches. Indeed, we might also point out that a centre-back could even be called up to the first team from the reserves as substitute, should all four seniors be picked. Conor Coady, who has already been on the bench for the first team this season, would fancy his chances of inclusion in that case.

After the defeat to West Brom, the challenge for fifth place is perhaps all but gone now; Spurs hold a five point advantage and have a game in hand. Perhaps this is a perfect time to integrate the kids into the team and give them their chance; with still a sizeable gap between Liverpool and the 7th place team in the league, even in the worst case scenario we wouldn’t drop any further in the table were the idea not to pan out.

City’s attack is often centre-heavy and reliant on clever movement by the likes of Tevez; perhaps, just as against Chelsea, deploying a three man defence of Carragher, Skrtel and Kyrgiakos would work very well in Liverpool’s favour? So often City attackers, even the wider players such as Silva and Johnson, prefer to cut in rather than work the flanks; bottle-necking the centre of the Reds’ defensive zone could negate the opposition attack to a huge extent.

Robinson and Flanagan both of course will have lots to learn in terms of defending – and indeed playing – at Premier League level, but that is certainly not to say they are not good enough. Look at the effect Martin Kelly had on the team; he is young and will make mistakes, likely ones that will cost the Reds a goal or two at some time. But he’s good enough to play, and has a consistently good effect on the team which undoubtedly outweighs the possibility that he could err from time to time.

Given the chance, Robinson and Flanagan could provide similar performances.

Playing with three defenders between these two youngsters significantly minimises the chance that their inexperience could give the opposition a scoring opportunity, while their need to make an impact and youthful energy would be a welcome addition to the side both in defence and further forward.

Even if Kenny chooses to stick with a back four for the City game, I would be highly in favour of perhaps Robinson starting on the left, with Carragher remaining at right back. A true attacking full-back adds so much to teams’ play and I feel it imperative that Liverpool try to incorporate this against Manchester City.

But with complete honesty and no rose-tinted, youth-exaggerating, trumpet-blowing biased point of view in sight, I would very much, tactically, technically and ‘long-term-edly’, like to see both Robinson and Flanagan given a chance next Monday night.

Careers are made, sometimes, by the chances taken when others fall foul of injury. Martin Kelly looks to be the next great example of just such a case – and there is every possibility that these other two local boys might just get their first big chance at Anfield in a few days time.

Preferred Reds side vs Man City (presuming no new injuries or returns from injury):

Reina
Skrtel    Carragher    Kyrgiakos
Flanagan                                                             Robinson
Lucas
Kuyt                       Meireles
Suarez
Carroll

Subs: Gulacsi, Wilson, Spearing, Ngog, Cole, Maxi, Poulsen.

or

Reina
Carragher    Skrtel    Kyrgiakos    Robinson
Spearing     Lucas
Kuyt        Meireles        Suarez
Carroll

Subs: Gulacsi, Wilson, Flanagan, Poulsen, Maxi, Cole, Ngog.

Can King Kenny Steal 5th Place for Liverpool From Tottenham?


After the Europa League exit at the hands of Braga last week, Liverpool’s sole route back into European football next season must come via a fifth place finish in the Premier League. Though seventh place last season was enough for the Reds to face continental opponents this term such as Napoli and Sparta Prague, Birmingham City’s League Cup triumph and the guarantee of either Stoke City or Bolton Wanderers appearing in the FA Cup Final in May means that England’s top league will this season contribute just one place to the Europa League for the 2011/12 campaign – fifth place, which is currently occupied by Tottenham Hotspur.

Given that even Liverpool spent much of the latter months of 2010 hovering around 15th place in the table under Roy Hodgson – even as late as the end of October the Reds were in the relegation zone – even the prospect of finishing in the top six has to be viewed as some sort of achievement, and is even an improvement on last season’s seventh place finish, all of the credit for which must go to current caretaker manager Kenny Dalglish.

But a sixth place finishing would indicate no European football for Liverpool next season, something which hasn’t been the case since Gerard Houllier’s first full season in sole charge, back in 1999.

So it is possible that King Kenny can take Liverpool one giant step further and sneak the fifth place finish which would at least see the Reds compete in the second-tier of European football again?

Is it even something Liverpool fans want? The Reds are all about challenging for honours and playing the biggest sides in the world. That is where we want to be; that is where we must be. And some have argued that, while admittedly a winnable trophy, the Europa League could provide a distraction from seriously challenging for a top four spot next season; a sort of second League Cup in disguise.

For what it’s worth, personally I would very much want to be in the Europa League next season. I would argue that we should always try to win each trophy we can, and our record in European football – nobody has won more Europa League/UEFA Cups than Liverpool – is something which we should proudly defend, not be irritated by.

Those who think differently should muse on this: as a result of being in the Europa League this season, Liverpool’s European coefficient will have dropped significantly, especially going out at a relatively early stage of the competition. Should we not be in any European competition next season our rating will drop even more alarmingly, quite possibly putting the Reds out of the top seeds should we manage to qualify for the Champions League in a years time.

Might I add further, for any prospective signings this summer – the name of Liverpool FC is and will always be a draw, but might it not be even brighter a light if European football can be offered immediately?

So can we do it? Can King Kenny lead Liverpool to an unlikely fifth place finish? A brief look at the fixtures remaining suggests it is possible, if not probable. Liverpool and Spurs are just four points apart at present, though the London side have a game in hand. Liverpool have to travel to The Emirates to play Arsenal as well as receiving Manchester City and Spurs themselves at Anfield, with the remaining five games against sides in the bottom half and therefore in the large group involved in this season’s relegation battle – just six points separate Newcastle (11th) from Wigan (20th).

Spurs on the other hand face four similarly struggling teams, mid-table Stoke, a home derby against Arsenal and three difficult trips to Chelsea, Manchester City and of course Liverpool.

Given Man City’s involvement in the fixtures between the Reds and Spurs, it is not inconceivable that Roberto Mancini’s inconsistent Citizens could be part of the battle, but they have an extra four points on Spurs and five victories in their final eight matches would almost guarantee them to finish above Liverpool.

Now to take a closer look and see just what the Reds need to do to take fifth place.

The first game in April sees Liverpool travel to West Brom to face the man Dalglish succeeded on the Anfield throne, Roy Hodgson. West Brom are a decent footballing side and showed just last week against Arsenal that they can match the big guns at home, but Liverpool have improved markedly under Dalglish away from home (three wins from five away league games under Dalglish, one win from nine under Hodgson) and if the squad comes through the international break unscathed we should be hopeful of taking all three points. The returns to fitness of Steven Gerrard, Jonjo Shelvey, Fabio Aurelio and Martin Kelly may come at different times throughout the month but if any of the four come back for the West Brom game it would boost the Reds’ options considerably.

Spurs meanwhile face Wigan at the DW Stadium. Though Wigan are bottom, they have caused Spurs problems in the past couple of seasons. Then again, Spurs also beat them 9-1 in 2009. In addition, Spurs face Real Madrid in the Champions League just three days later and I fancy they may rest one or two players after the international break and before this big fixture. I’m going for a Wigan victory.

Next up, a home game to Manchester City. This could go either way – the reverse fixture saw City win 3-0 though Liverpool did play well up to a point that day and certainly deserved a goal at least; a three goal defeat was harsh. The lesser-evil-half of Manchester are certainly more functional than spectacular this season, though the returns from injury of Carols Tevez and Adam Johnson will give them a big boost in the attacking areas. A win in this game would be a big boost for the Reds in the run in, and nine days to prepare between the WBA game and this one it is certainly a possibility, but it is a close game to call and I will go with a draw.

Sandwiched between the two legs of the Real Madrid game, Spurs face Stoke. Regardless of resting players, Stoke’s away form is poor – eleven losses this season in the league – and I think Spurs will beat them.

Arsenal away is third in April and is the one game during the last two months of the season which I could see the Reds slipping up in. Arsenal are strong at home and of course one of the best sides in Europe; on their day they can beat any team convincingly. Of course, if Almunia plays in goal for Liverpool there is always a good chance of being gifted a goal…. Nonetheless, I don’t imagine Liverpool will go through the remainder of the season unbeaten so I will elect this game as being a defeat, with the proviso that I will be very happy to be proven otherwise!

Spurs also play Arsenal just a few days later in a midweek North London derby. Arsenal usually beat Spurs late on in these games and though I would like it to be the case again as the Reds seek to overcome the white half of North London, I feel Spurs will win this game. From here on in, Spurs fixtures may be changed or re-arranged depending on their progress in the Champions League.

Liverpool finish April with a home fixture against Birmingham – battling relegation or not, the Reds should win this game at a canter. We have been generally strong at home and barring further injuries most of the squad should be available by this time. Birmingham have struggled for goals this season and I would expect Liverpool to win this game comfortably if they are at their best. As with all the games in April, the Reds will have a full week to prepare for the fixture as a result of being out of the cup competitions.

Roy Hodgson rears his head in this blog again here as he takes his West Brom side to White Hart Lane. Reds supporters know all about Roy’s away form – Tottenham win in this one.

In the final month of the season, Liverpool will first receive Andy Carroll’s old side Newcastle United. Though I hope he has opened his account for the Reds before this game, it would be rather poetic if he was to net the winner in this match, given he cost us three points in the reverse fixture when he was still wearing black and white! Again, at home this is a fixture I would expect Liverpool to win; Newcastle have struggled somewhat under Pardew and few sides can cope with Liverpool in full flow at home.

The day before the Liverpool-Newcastle game, Tottenham face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Another London derby, though less intense, Chelsea will by this time hopefully be in full flight as they storm back to rob Manchester United of the Premiership title! Even if they don’t, only very, very good sides beat them at Stamford Bridge (nudge nudge, wink wink) and I have to choose a loss for Spurs.

The visit to Fulham I also expect Liverpool to win; though they are just three points off the relegation zone at the moment, between now and this fixture Fulham face the likes of Blackpool, Wolves and Sunderland and I expect they may have taken enough points to secure their status for another season, making this fixture something of a dead rubber for them. Hopefully of course Liverpool will still be aiming for fifth place, and I would back Dalglish to outfox an old adversary in Mark Hughes, once a player of Manchester United while Dalglish was the same for Liverpool.

Spurs face Blackpool at home on the same day as Liverpool-Fulham and though the Tangerines are inherently unpredictable, this has to go down as a home banker.

Then Spurs take their extra game in hand – a very difficult trip to Manchester City. The two sides met in a similar fourth/fifth place battle one year and five days previously to when this tie is due to take place – Spurs won that game 1-0 at Eastlands and in doing so won their shot at the Champions League. This season, it is City who have the edge at this moment in time and who will surely be determined not to repeat their mistakes of last season. This game truly could go either way – Spurs are sure to attack and hope to outscore City, similarly to how they approached the game last season, while City’s style is not so rash or gung-ho. With Spurs’ porous defence away from home (24 conceded in 15 games) and City’s strong home record (2 defeats in 15) I’m going for a home win, putting Manchester City in the Champions League in the process.

That takes us to the penultimate game of the season when Spurs visit Anfield in what could prove a crucial fixture in the battle for fifth place. Should the games beforehand go as I have predicted (highly unlikely I know!) at the start of this game Liverpool would have 58 points and Tottenham 61 points – the Reds having made up ground of just 1 point between now and then. With a lot riding on the outcome of this game, and with it being played at Anfield, I have to again go with a Reds win. We have a good record at home against Spurs and I can see this continuing. That puts us level on points with Tottenham – with just one game apiece to play.

At this point of course, goal difference would come into play. At this moment Tottenham have a slight advantage over Liverpool, +7 compared to the Reds’ +5, but if the likelihood of my guesses of match outcomes being all correct are slim then predicting the goals scored and conceded in each one would be mostly futile. But let’s guess anyway. I’d imagine Liverpool could add a further +6 to their goal difference with the 3 wins over Birmingham, Newcastle and Fulham. The draw vs Man City and a win and a defeat against West Brom and Arsenal respectively could easily come out at 0 – leaving the game against Spurs to add another +1, giving a total goal difference of +12 come the end of the Spurs game.

For their part, Spurs could even out the loss vs Wigan with the win vs Stoke, and likewise the loss vs Chelsea and the win vs Arsenal. Home wins over West Brom and Blackpool could easily add +5 to their difference, with defeats to Man City and Liverpool lowering that to +3, giving Tottenham a total of +10.

That would put Liverpool in the final fifth spot, though of course very little attention should be paid to such guesswork for the goals scored for and against.

Whoever had a better goal difference, going into the last day of the season both sides would know that a big victory could seal a Europa League spot, while anything less would mean nothing at all to play for outside of the domestic cup competitions next season – unless of course, Tottenham manage to dispose of Real Madrid, the winners of Barcelona-Shakhtar Donetsk and then vanquish Manchester United, Chelsea, Inter Milan or Schalke in the final of the Champions League. As Reds fans, we should not be hoping for this somewhat improbable outcome – Spurs as holders would go into the Champions League, bumping Man City down to the Europa League, taking the third and final English slot in the process!

Back to the Premiership – Liverpool face Aston Villa at Villa Park, with ex-Reds boss Gerard Houllier presumably still at the helm, while Tottenham have a home game against Villa’s Midlands rivals Birmingham City. Either or both of these clubs could be in relegation trouble come the last game of the season, and my money would be on the Blues. Despite their Carling Cup win Birmingham have been poor in the league and with West Ham’s resurgence, Blackpool’s habit of pulling a victory out at unexpected times and the undeniably qualities of teams such as West Brom and Wolves, the Blues are really going to struggle in my opinion to survive the drop.

What that means in terms of Liverpool is one of two things: either they could already be relegated by the time this clash comes around, resulting in a straight forward win for Spurs, or they have one last chance to win on the last day of the season to stay up, meaning much more of a battle – presumably. In either case, I would have to go with a Tottenham win. Spurs are strong at home and the teams down at the bottom are often down there for a reason.

That leaves the Reds in battle at Villa Park – where I believe they will also win. Villa should have clocked up enough points by then to ensure their own survival and with one or two players possibly moving on come the end of the season, their end of season games could become something of a stroll. Liverpool can afford no such luxury of course, and I would hope the motivation of continental football would be enough to see us home with three points to end the season.

64 points to end the season is far from the best total Liverpool have managed in recent seasons, and indeed only beats last season’s seventh place finish by a single point, but given that we had taken only 25 points from our first 20 games, taking an additional 39 points from the remaining 18 matches would really be an incredible achievement.

To put it into perspective, the 20 games under Hodgson clocked up 1.25 points per game, averaging out at 47.5 points for a full season, good enough for about an 11th place finish over the past five years – the 18 games under Dalglish (would) rack up 2.17 points per game, which if extended over the course of an entire season would amount to no less than 82 points, enough for a third place finish in most Premier League seasons.

Europa League football next season is certainly a possibility for Liverpool. If it actually does come down to goal difference whether Liverpool finish 5th or not, nobody could have asked anything more from Kenny Dalglish – apart from maybe putting his boots back on to knock in a couple of extra goals for us.

We still need favours from other teams to give ourselves a chance of making it – Wigan, Chelsea and Manchester City all took points off Spurs in my thoughts above before the Liverpool match, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out which of those is most unlikely – but it seems clear all the same that the clash at Anfield on May 15th could turn out to be a pivotal one for Liverpool, not just for this season but for the seasons ahead as well.